The International Monetary Fund predicts that China's economy will grow by 4.8 percent this year and 4.5 percent next year. Recent stimulus measures appear to be taking effect, as indicated by a third consecutive month of expansion in manufacturing activity, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reaching 50.1 in December. The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 52.2 in December, driven by growth in the services and construction sectors. According to Gabriel Ng of Capital Economics, increased policy support has provided a near-term boost to growth, with export orders rising to a four-month high in December, likely due to US importers stockpiling goods ahead of potential tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's administration.